Source text in English | Translation by Fredrick Otiato (#25916) |
Boom times are back in Silicon Valley. Office parks along Highway 101 are once again adorned with the insignia of hopeful start-ups. Rents are soaring, as is the demand for fancy vacation homes in resort towns like Lake Tahoe, a sign of fortunes being amassed. The Bay Area was the birthplace of the semiconductor industry and the computer and internet companies that have grown up in its wake. Its wizards provided many of the marvels that make the world feel futuristic, from touch-screen phones to the instantaneous searching of great libraries to the power to pilot a drone thousands of miles away. The revival in its business activity since 2010 suggests progress is motoring on. So it may come as a surprise that some in Silicon Valley think the place is stagnant, and that the rate of innovation has been slackening for decades. Peter Thiel, a founder of PayPal, and the first outside investor in Facebook, says that innovation in America is “somewhere between dire straits and dead”. Engineers in all sorts of areas share similar feelings of disappointment. And a small but growing group of economists reckon the economic impact of the innovations of today may pale in comparison with those of the past. [ … ] Across the board, innovations fueled by cheap processing power are taking off. Computers are beginning to understand natural language. People are controlling video games through body movement alone—a technology that may soon find application in much of the business world. Three-dimensional printing is capable of churning out an increasingly complex array of objects, and may soon move on to human tissues and other organic material. An innovation pessimist could dismiss this as “jam tomorrow”. But the idea that technology-led growth must either continue unabated or steadily decline, rather than ebbing and flowing, is at odds with history. Chad Syverson of the University of Chicago points out that productivity growth during the age of electrification was lumpy. Growth was slow during a period of important electrical innovations in the late 19th and early 20th centuries; then it surged. | Nyakati za ustawi wa haraka zimerejea tena katika eneo la Silicon Valley. Majumba ya ofisi kandokando ya barabara kuu ya Highway 101 kwa mara nyingine tena yamepambwa kwa alama za matumaini ya kuanzishwa tena. Kodi za nyumba zinaongezeka sana sawa na watu kutaka sana nyumba za likizo kwenye miji ya utalii kama vile Ziwa Tahoe, ishara ya utajiri unaokusanywa kwa muda. Maeneo ya Ghuba ni pahali ambapo kampuni ya kipitishi cha umeme na makampuni ya kompyuta na mtandao ambayo yamekua katika kuamka kwake. Wataalamu wake walitoa vitu vingi vya ajabu ambavyo hufanya ulimwengu kuhisi kuwa wenye teknolojia na miundo ya kisasa; kuanzia simu janja hadi kwa kutafuta moja kwa moja kwenye maktaba makuu na kwa nguvu ya kuongoza droni kwa umbali wa maelfu ya maili. Ufufuaji wa shughuli zake za kibiashara tangu mwaka wa 2010 unaashiria kwamba maendeleo yake yanaimarika. Hivyo inaweza ikawa kama mshangao kwamba wengine katika Silicon Valley hufikiria kwamba eneo hili limekwama kimaendeleo, na kwamba hali ya ubunifu imekuwa ikirudi nyuma kwa miongo. Peter Thiel, mwanzilishi wa PayPal, na mwekezaji wa nje wa kwanza kwenye Facebook, husema kwamba ubunifu Marekani upo "mahali kati ya finyu sana na kutokuwepo". Wahandisi katika maeneo ya aina zote hushiriki hisia sawa za kutoridhishwa. Na kikundi kidogo japo kinachokua cha wataalamu wa uchumi wanashikilia kwamba athari ya uvumbuzi wa leo kwa uchumi inaweza kuwa hafifu ikilinganishwa na zile za kitambo. [ … ] Kwa kila upande, uvumbuzi uliochochewa na nguvu nafuu ya usindikaji unang'oa nanga. Kompyuta zinaanza kufahamu lugha asilia. Watu wanadhibiti michezo ya video kupitia kwa miondoko ya mwili pekee—teknolojia ambayo huenda hivi karibuni ikapata matumizi katika ulimwengu kubwa wa kibiashara. Uchapishaji wa sura zote (3D) una uwezo wa kutoa kwa wingi sura changamano ya vitu, na huenda hivi karibuni ukaenda kwa tishu za binadamu na vitu vingine vyenye uhai. Msorajua wa uvumbuzi anaweza kupuuza hii kama "ahadi nzuri zisizotimizwa". Lakini wazo hilo kwamba ukuaji unaoongozwa na teknolojia ni lazima ama liendelee kwa nguvu isiyopungua au kushuka kwa kasi, badala ya kudhoofika na kububujika, ni kinyume cha historia. Chad Syverson wa Chuo Kikuu cha Chicago anaashiria kwamba ukuaji wa uzalishaji wakati wa umri wa matumizi ya umeme ulikuwa mkubwa. Ukuaji ulikuwa pole pole wakati wa kipindi cha uvumbuzi muhimu wa umeme katika mwisho wa karne ya 19 na mwanzo wa karne ya 20; kisha ukaimarika kwa ghafla. |